Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd508…0009 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+1%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$13
other 25% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.8% -14.7% 75% 25% -7.1%
≤30d 17 -2.7% -11.9% 82% 29% -6.9%
≤90d 43 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 14% -9.6%
all 43 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 14% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage38d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6 −$3 -42%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $6 $0 +1%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen May 28 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro May 28 $12 +$2 +17%
Valorant: ROSE vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group May 28 $8 +$2 +24%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $8 +$1 +12%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 24 $515 +$106 +21%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 24 $576 +$10 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $444 +$10 +2%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $505 +$10 +2%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $368 −$37 -10%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 23 $525 +$10 +2%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 23 $586 +$10 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $197 +$5 +2%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $253 +$4 +2%
Spread: Al Riyadh Saudi Club (-1.5) May 21 $556 −$28 -5%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 20 $414 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 19 $9 +$6 +70%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 May 18 $235 −$1 -0%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 17 $5 $0 -2%
Spread: FK Krasnodar (-1.5) May 17 $12 −$3 -22%
Spread: Kayserispor (-1.5) May 17 $125 +$12 +10%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) May 17 $285 −$4 -1%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $571 −$7 -1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 3.5 May 16 $12 $0 -2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $229 −$4 -2%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $205 $0 -0%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea May 16 $2 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $200 −$14 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $285 −$4 -1%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-16? May 15 $170 $0 -0%
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) May 15 $420 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $447 −$27 -6%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 14 $560 −$64 -11%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 14 $605 −$2 -0%
Paris: Diane Parry vs Chloe Paquet May 14 $89 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $116 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $60 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 16h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 16h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 17h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 17h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 17h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 65¢ $6 17h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 64¢ $6 17h
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challen BUY NRG Esports 76¢ $14 22d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro SELL TDK 100¢ $14 22d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro BUY TDK 85¢ $12 22d
Valorant: ROSE vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY YFP Gaming 80¢ $8 23d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 89¢ $8 24d
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) SELL AC Milan 62¢ $621 26d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Houston Astros 58¢ $495 27d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) SELL Houston Astros 58¢ $91 27d
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) BUY AC Milan 51¢ $515 27d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 57¢ $576 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $108 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $10 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $67 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $10 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $2 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $15 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $7 27d
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs SELL RED Canids 45¢ $118 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.86 · official $57.86 (match) · 207 history records