Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd508…9784
crypto · 63 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$329 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$331 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,036
Realized+$331
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses59 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage240d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 3 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $515 $514 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $428 $428 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 +$5 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $193 +$3 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $831 +$7 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,017 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $996 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 20 $18 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $2,023 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $251 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $656 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Apr 08 $141 +$9 +6%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 04 $250 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 20 Apr 04 $605 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,800 on the final trading day of March 20 Mar 30 $250 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 26 $978 +$18 +2%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 19 $834 +$14 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 09 $106 +$24 +22%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 28 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 27 $128 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Feb 25 $830 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 25 $829 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 11 $825 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $820 +$5 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 30 $816 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 27 $1,728 +$8 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 24 $225 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $735 +$5 +1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Jan 09 $321 +$17 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $155 +$2 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $730 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $630 +$100 +16%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 19 $152 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $148 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Nov 21 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $180 +$5 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $245 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 14 $281 +$7 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 14 $364 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $19 +$6 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $626 +$7 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 02 $20 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $2,346 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 44% +$174
other 20% +$31
economics 16% +$46
finance 9% +$31
world 5% +$24
tech 3% +$10
politics 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $96 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 95¢ $91 7h
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $515 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $428 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 33h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $823 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 34h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 98¢ $193 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $831 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $925 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $93 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,017 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $168 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $751 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $65 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $18 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $996 42d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $1,014 47d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1,014 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1,013 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1,013 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $910 54d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $251 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $0 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $88 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 60 +2.3% -7.5% 98% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 5% -8.6%
10% -16.3% 3% -17.4%
15% -24.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.50 · official $1,036.50 (match) · 259 history records