Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D5 0xd50a…0887 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 503d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$284 (-19%) realized −$284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$25
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$309
other 6% −$13
weather 3% +$73
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +174.8% +148.6% 100% 100% +148.6%
≤30d 6 +21.8% +10.2% 33% 33% -11.5%
≤90d 23 +69.5% +53.4% 39% 39% -12.8%
all 42 +34.3% +21.5% 40% 40% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.5% 40% -26.8%
10% +9.8% 36% -33.8%
15% -0.8% 33% -40.2%
20% -10.5% 31% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$32 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage503d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 +$36 +175%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $11 −$11 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $31 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $11 +$38 +356%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or below on May 13? May 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 11? May 11 $6 +$4 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 11? May 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11? May 11 $3 +$89 +2829%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Avangard Omsk May 07 $8 +$8 +100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? May 06 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6? May 06 $9 +$11 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 4 Winner Mar 30 $20 +$12 +61%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner Mar 28 $3 +$2 +88%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $15 +$2 +17%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 13 $20 +$47 +233%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Dec 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG - Game 2 Winner Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 30 $20 +$8 +38%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $15 +$29 +193%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 3 Winner Nov 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Nov 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Nov 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 23 $175 +$31 +17%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Nov 23 $109 +$98 +90%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $26 +$14 +54%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $31 +$58 +191%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) Nov 02 $150 +$48 +32%
Adesanya vs. Imavov Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Magomedov vs. Page Mar 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $56 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $20 5h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 0¢ $1 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 6¢ $10 13d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 17¢ $2 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 23¢ $3 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $26 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 20d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 60¢ $49 21d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $11 21d
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Stray Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BUY Stray Team 33¢ $20 29d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or below on May 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or below on May 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 37d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 39d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 11? BUY No 55¢ $3 39d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 11? BUY No 55¢ $3 39d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 11? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 39d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 39d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 42d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 42d
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Avangard Omsk BUY Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 50¢ $3 44d
KHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Avangard Omsk BUY Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 50¢ $4 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 44d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 6? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 44d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 44d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 45d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records