Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd511…fd69 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 34% +$4
politics 12% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 32% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 19 -1.7% -11.1% 32% 0% -10.0%
all 49 -0.1% -9.7% 41% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage391d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $73 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 06 $30 $0 -1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 06 $30 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 20 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +116%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 08 $23 $0 -1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 07 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? May 31 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 15h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 30h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $29 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $19 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $24 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 144 history records