Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D5 0xd512…a05f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% $0
politics 37% $0
economics 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 11 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage89d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $102 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $104 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 22 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 15h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 16d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 21d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 22d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 34d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 38d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $102 42d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $102 42d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 64d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 64d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $104 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $104 68d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 71d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 72d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 77d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 78d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $104 89d
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $104 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records