Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd512…79b3 world 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,820 (+5%) realized +$5,138 · open −$1,318
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%37W / 101L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$1,754
crypto 11% +$2,620
other 0% +$3,921
politics 0% −$70
economics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -35.6% -41.7% 50% 0% -38.6%
≤30d 4 +49.4% +35.2% 50% 25% +13.7%
≤90d 56 -21.4% -28.9% 34% 18% -6.6%
all 138 -28.0% -34.8% 27% 18% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 18% +1.4%
10% -41.1% 14% -8.3%
15% -46.8% 14% -17.1%
20% -52.0% 13% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$470 vs −$113 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$3,840
Realized+$5,138
Unrealized−$1,318
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses37 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions42
Markets (closed)138 / 180
History coverage150d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 78¢ $2,001 $1,873 −$128 (-6%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $526 $534 +$8 (+1%)
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $244 $324 +$81 (+33%)
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $146 $246 +$100 (+69%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 7¢ $891 $192 −$699 (-78%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $215 $144 −$71 (-33%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $101 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $63 $71 +$8 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 65¢ $72 $65 −$7 (-10%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $371 $62 −$309 (-83%)
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+9%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $11 $49 +$38 (+343%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $95 $46 −$49 (-52%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $156 $19 −$137 (-88%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $80 $18 −$61 (-77%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $62 $17 −$45 (-73%)
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $21 $3 −$18 (-86%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-83%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $2 −$9 (-84%)
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $101 −$76 -75%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 14 $120 +$5 +4%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 04 $240 +$885 +369%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $902 −$559 -62%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $1 +$1 +92%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? May 07 $97 −$45 -46%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 28 $1,944 −$1,530 -79%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? Apr 27 $90 −$47 -53%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Apr 26 $371 −$47 -13%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $163 −$64 -40%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 22 $271 +$13 +5%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $304 −$240 -79%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $1 +$6 +567%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 09 $31 −$23 -75%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 08 $2,223 −$434 -20%
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +72%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 05 $1,058 −$10 -1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026? Apr 04 $442 +$497 +113%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $2,625 +$2,913 +111%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $262 −$9 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Apr 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $4 −$2 -35%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026? Mar 31 $730 −$7 -1%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 30 $924 −$297 -32%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $400 +$3 +1%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $955 +$54 +6%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $500 +$22 +4%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Iran strike Israel by April 30, 2026? Mar 27 $401 +$7 +2%
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 20 Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 20 Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $637 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $376 17h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 44h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 44h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $85 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $516 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $246 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $205 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $0 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $68 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $50 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $23 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,840.39 · official $3,840.40 (match) · 2721 history records