Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd514…bbdf weather 522 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$646 (-3%) realized −$652 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%147W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day99.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$575
14 days−$641
30 days−$1,011
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$403
weather 46% −$668
other 3% +$13
finance 2% +$58
tech 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -16.8% -24.8% 19% 11% -15.6%
≤30d 451 -16.1% -24.1% 27% 19% -14.1%
≤90d 493 -13.3% -21.5% 30% 21% -13.7%
all 493 -13.3% -21.5% 30% 21% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 21% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 16% -22.0%
15% -35.9% 12% -29.5%
20% -42.2% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,129
Realized−$652
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses147 / 346
Open positions29
Markets (closed)493 / 522
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day99.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $360 $393 +$34 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 76¢ 100¢ $191 $249 +$58 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 92¢ 100¢ $156 $169 +$13 (+8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 27? No 55¢ 50¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 73¢ 100¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? No 77¢ 74¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? No 79¢ 77¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 27? No 49¢ 34¢ $42 $30 −$12 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? No 60¢ 34¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-44%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 74¢ 100¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? No 52¢ 19¢ $33 $12 −$21 (-63%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? No 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26? No 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? No 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 27? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? No 60¢ 61¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 26? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? No 55¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? No 25¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $56 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $96 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27? Jun 27 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $49 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $40 −$4 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $29 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $84 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $30 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 26 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 26 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $23 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $89 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $16 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 26 $193 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $17 −$15 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 26 $25 −$4 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 26 $110 −$20 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 26 $25 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $497 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $73 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $39 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $107 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $37 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 −$13 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $52 −$10 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $38 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 59¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 78¢ $39 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 79¢ $40 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 58¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 58¢ $24 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 58¢ $29 8m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 27? SELL No 79¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? SELL No 44¢ $21 11m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 27? BUY No 45¢ $22 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 12m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 73¢ $11 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 73¢ $15 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 73¢ $11 18m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $36 19m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 20m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 20m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 76¢ $7 25m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $7 25m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 25m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,128.61 · official $1,128.37 (match) · 3500 history records