Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd515…2c54 sports 493 markets active 1h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$56 (-1%) realized +$15 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate69%315W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$48
14 days−$29
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$8
other 42% −$137
politics 5% +$19
crypto 3% −$14
tech 3% +$2
world 2% −$19
finance 1% +$6
weather 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -10.7% -19.2% 64% 13% -11.0%
≤30d 179 +6.3% -3.8% 69% 26% -9.5%
≤90d 417 +0.8% -8.8% 71% 31% -10.0%
all 458 -0.2% -9.7% 69% 32% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 32% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 21% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 16% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses315 / 143
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions32
Markets (closed)458 / 493
History coverage638d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $83 $78 −$5 (-7%)
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+25%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 92¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-13%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 73¢ 58¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $391 +$3 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $170 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 +$3 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +40%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$18 -18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$8 -16%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $145 +$11 +8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $213 +$3 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $230 +$3 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $131 −$5 -4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$9 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 59m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 59m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $80 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $80 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.66 · official $384.66 (match) · 1643 history records