Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd518…6c67 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+7%) realized −$503 · open +$524
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$571
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +50.9% +36.5% 62% 38% +16.2%
≤30d 16 +50.9% +36.5% 62% 38% +16.2%
≤90d 16 +50.9% +36.5% 62% 38% +16.2%
all 16 +50.9% +36.5% 62% 38% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.5% 38% +16.2%
10% ← realistic here +23.5% 19% +5.0%
15% +11.5% 19% -5.1%
20% +0.6% 19% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +108% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.43 per $1 lost it wins $4.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized−$503
Unrealized+$524
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 7¢ 50¢ $79 $579 +$500 (+633%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 17¢ 50¢ $20 $59 +$39 (+197%)
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 63¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 99¢ 50¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-49%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 83¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 21¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$41 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$9 +888%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $83 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.94 · official $659.94 (match) · 64 history records