Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd519…932c crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$342,557 (+499%) realized +$336,209 · open +$6,348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%5W / 114L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$953per market
Trades / day124.4pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$21,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$37,622
world 22% +$30,350
other 12% −$5,697
sports 10% +$915
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 119 -32.3% -38.7% 4% 4% -80.6%
≤90d 119 -32.3% -38.7% 4% 4% -80.6%
all 119 -32.3% -38.7% 4% 4% -80.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover124.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.7% 4% -80.6%
10% -44.6% 4% -82.5%
15% ← realistic here -49.9% 4% -84.2%
20% -54.9% 4% -85.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,149) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +37% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
47.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,724 vs −$845 · ×7.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$21,977
Realized+$336,209
Unrealized+$6,348
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses5 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions13
Markets (closed)119 / 72
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$953
Trades / day124.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $2,000 $5,528 +$3,528 (+176%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $4,944 $4,472 −$472 (-10%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 60¢ 88¢ $3,000 $4,425 +$1,425 (+48%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $2,111 $3,333 +$1,222 (+58%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $2,392 $3,182 +$790 (+33%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $500 $292 −$208 (-42%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $195 +$15 (+8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? Jun 15 $821 −$821 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 15 $878 −$878 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $2,157 −$2,157 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? Jun 15 $375 −$375 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 29? Jun 15 $795 −$795 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $493 −$493 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? Jun 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $644 −$644 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $1,615 −$1,615 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 10? Jun 15 $333 −$333 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? Jun 15 $926 −$926 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? Jun 15 $927 −$927 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $333 −$333 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Jun 15 $750 −$750 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Jun 15 $4,499 −$4,499 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? Jun 15 $2,078 −$2,078 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? Jun 15 $187 −$187 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 15 $407 −$407 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $592 −$592 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Jun 15 $2,860 −$2,860 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 15 $1,595 −$1,595 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? Jun 15 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14? Jun 15 $545 −$545 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? Jun 15 $219 −$219 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $566 47m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1,445 47m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $12 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $3 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $12 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $2 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $2,972 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $500 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $114 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $4 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $0 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $314 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $14 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $9 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,977.36 · official $21,977.36 (match) · 3500 history records