Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd519…e099 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$11
14 days−$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.6% -20.9% 58% 42% -5.8%
≤30d 141 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 40% -10.8%
≤90d 141 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 40% -10.8%
all 141 -11.3% -19.7% 54% 40% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 40% -10.8%
10% -27.4% 29% -19.4%
15% -34.4% 21% -27.1%
20% -40.8% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$2 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records