Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd51a…17c8 politics 6 markets active 13h ago coverage 561d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34,303 (-79%) realized −$33,657 · open −$646
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,212per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 561d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$34,054
world 6% −$114
other 2% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -99.8%
≤90d 2 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -99.8%
all 2 -73.8% -76.3% 0% 0% -99.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -76.3% 0% -99.8%
10% ← realistic here -78.6% 0% -99.8%
15% -80.6% 0% -99.9%
20% -82.5% 0% -99.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$16,839 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

561d coverage
Net worth$8,266
Realized−$33,657
Unrealized−$646
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage561d
Avg bet$7,212
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6,000 $5,625 −$375 (-6%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1,912 $1,858 −$54 (-3%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $609 $451 −$158 (-26%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $392 $332 −$60 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Korean President impeached in 2024? Jun 02 $126 −$60 -48%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Jun 02 $33,619 −$33,619 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 13h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,988 13h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $387 13h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $449 13h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $6,029 13h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $112 11d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $108 11d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $208 11d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $227 15d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 34¢ $23,055 444d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 42¢ $653 445d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 46¢ $1,308 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 46¢ $664 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 45¢ $2,633 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 47¢ $1,295 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 45¢ $1,314 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 46¢ $1,315 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 43¢ $1,123 446d
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? BUY No 43¢ $261 446d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? BUY No 11¢ $66 556d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? SELL No 76¢ $66 561d
South Korean President impeached in 2024? BUY No 69¢ $60 561d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,266.11 · official $8,266.11 (match) · 25 history records