Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:49:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd51c…e4b7 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day91.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 29% +0.8%
≤30d 7 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 29% +0.8%
≤90d 7 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 29% +0.8%
all 7 -21.2% -28.7% 43% 29% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 29% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 29% -8.8%
15% -41.8% 29% -17.6%
20% -47.5% 14% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day91.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $83 +$38 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $88 +$81 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$19 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $169 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records