Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd51d…edcb sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$395 (+27%) realized +$406 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$329
14 days+$329
30 days+$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$309
other 41% +$30
world 7% +$13
politics 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +24.7% +12.8% 35% 30% +32.2%
≤30d 22 +33.7% +20.9% 41% 36% +38.1%
≤90d 26 +19.1% +7.8% 38% 35% +29.4%
all 26 +19.1% +7.8% 38% 35% +29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 35% +29.4%
10% -2.5% 35% +17.0%
15% -12.0% 35% +5.7%
20% -20.6% 35% -4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$20 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$616
Realized+$406
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions12
Markets (closed)26 / 38
History coverage66d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+32%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$56 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$70 +137%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$90 +436%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$13 -44%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$80 +261%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $104 +$211 +204%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $51 +$67 +131%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 +$11 +115%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 29h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 43h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.19 · official $616.23 (match) · 115 history records