Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd525…5131 world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$7
14 days−$36
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$31
politics 28% $0
other 20% −$11
sports 7% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.3% -7.5% 29% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 4% -11.1%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 3% -10.3%
all 58 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -10.3%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage318d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $116 +$8 +7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $67 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $48 −$9 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $199 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $173 −$32 -19%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $152 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $179 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $35 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $131 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $22 +$3 +13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $46 +$1 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 18 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $105 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $624 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $363 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $161 −$12 -7%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 +26%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Aug 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $70 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $71 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $55 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $64 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $58 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $59 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $65 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $65 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $65 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $58 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $58 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $57 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $12 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $45 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $58 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records