Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd526…11ff crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-34%) realized −$144 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$19
world 38% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -43.2%
≤30d 35 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -43.2%
≤90d 35 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -43.2%
all 35 -20.2% -27.8% 40% 40% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 40% -43.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 40% -48.6%
15% -41.0% 34% -53.6%
20% -46.8% 29% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.94 · official $33.94 (match) · 89 history records