Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd52a…dceb
sports · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$16
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner GenOne 70¢ 56¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner PARIVISION 35¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 37¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Playoffs Bigetron by Vitality 25¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $26 −$15 -56%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $20 +$24 +119%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $20 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% +$11
politics 23% −$20
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 70¢ $20 3m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 33m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION $0 33m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 37¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 35¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 49¢ $10 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $5 6h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $11 6h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) SELL Bigetron by Vitality 99¢ $20 6h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) BUY Bigetron by Vitality 99¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr SELL Bebop 100¢ $45 21h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr BUY Bebop 45¢ $20 23h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 25¢ $11 27h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In SELL Geek Fam ID 100¢ $31 28h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In BUY Geek Fam ID 64¢ $20 30h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $5 31h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.6% -24.5% 50% 25% -6.7%
≤30d 8 -16.6% -24.5% 50% 25% -6.7%
≤90d 8 -16.6% -24.5% 50% 25% -6.7%
all 8 -16.6% -24.5% 50% 25% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 25% -6.7%
10% -31.8% 25% -15.7%
15% -38.4% 25% -23.8%
20% -44.4% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.95 · official $15.95 (match) · 24 history records