Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd52b…5c72
world · 108 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
−$144,680 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$131,466 · open −$16,887
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$73,172
Realized−$131,466
Unrealized−$16,887
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions37
Markets (closed)73 / 108
Avg bet$10,018
Trades / day171.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 37 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$6,373
14 days−$144,777
30 days−$131,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $25,000 $42,050 +$17,050 (+68%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 78¢ 82¢ $8,881 $9,366 +$485 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $25,000 $7,950 −$17,050 (-68%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 90¢ 92¢ $2,703 $2,779 +$76 (+3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $1,515 $1,556 +$41 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $1,364 $1,407 +$42 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 61¢ 64¢ $1,100 $1,168 +$68 (+6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $923 $1,046 +$123 (+13%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $800 $820 +$20 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 27¢ 26¢ $770 $751 −$20 (-3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $485 $540 +$56 (+11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $653 $539 −$113 (-17%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 53¢ 52¢ $479 $472 −$6 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $460 $352 −$108 (-24%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 100¢ 100¢ $348 $349 +$1 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $160 $269 +$108 (+68%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? No 94¢ 95¢ $259 $263 +$4 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 16¢ 10¢ $398 $260 −$138 (-35%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $216 $245 +$29 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $171 $178 +$8 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 28¢ 23¢ $156 $127 −$29 (-18%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 4¢ 3¢ $168 $114 −$55 (-32%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $64 $106 +$42 (+65%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $352 $105 −$247 (-70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $10,837 +$169 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $8 $0 +6%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $91 −$11 -12%
Will Trump announce Elise Stefanik as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $81 −$15 -18%
Will Trump announce Michael Ellis as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $183 −$8 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $4,766 −$211 -4%
Will Trump announce Devin Nunes as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $30 +$31 +105%
Will Trump announce Aaron Lukas as the next Director of National Intel Jun 11 $66 −$35 -53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $727 −$119 -16%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $907 −$132 -15%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 10 $586 +$642 +110%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $237 +$28 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $45,899 +$3,442 +8%
Will Apple announce an Apple Smart Home Display during the WWDC 2026 k Jun 09 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Apple announce a touchscreen MacBook during the WWDC 2026 keynote Jun 09 $221 +$5 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $5,566 +$463 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $20,510 +$1,170 +6%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $2,000 +$247 +12%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 08 $1,962 +$400 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,884 +$310 +16%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $258 +$23 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $170 +$48 +28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $204,262 +$1,248 +1%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $15 −$3 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $2,522 +$258 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 03 $190 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $4,885 −$1,101 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 03 $1,480 +$215 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $4,992 +$98 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 02 $117 +$42 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $1,757 +$75 +4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $85,000 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? Jun 02 $595 +$183 +31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 −$38 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $145 +$29 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $36,603 +$4,175 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $21,519 +$4,374 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $18,580 +$741 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1,314 −$299 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $80,956 +$1,410 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 30 $7,414 +$808 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 30 $3,048 −$699 -23%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 30 $8,201 +$45 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $2,967 −$122 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 30 $15,504 +$405 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 40% +$29,263
politics 22% −$14,707
crypto 19% +$1,277
other 19% −$164,138
tech 0% +$50
economics 0% +$494
finance 0% −$592
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $90 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $52 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 92¢ $133 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $35 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $29 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 58¢ $298 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 58¢ $12 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 9h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL No 1¢ $13 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic vs. Czechi BUY 17¢ $10 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $200 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 30¢ $450 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $279 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 64¢ $768 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 18¢ $9 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $178 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $225 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $136 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $745 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $8 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $444 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 62¢ $738 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $723 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $0 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 29¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $568 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $810 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 26¢ $180 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 84¢ $192 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 84¢ $82 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+71.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +15.6% +4.6% 58% 25% -3.5%
≤30d 73 +89.3% +71.3% 64% 34% -25.0%
≤90d 73 +89.3% +71.3% 64% 34% -25.0%
all 73 +89.3% +71.3% 64% 34% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover171.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.3% 34% -25.0%
10% +54.9% 19% -32.2%
15% ← realistic here +39.9% 15% -38.7%
20% +26.2% 12% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73,172.13 · official $73,182.14 (match) · 3500 history records