Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd52b…783c
sports · 984 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,094 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,147 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$273
Realized−$1,147
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses472 / 498
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions13
Markets (closed)970 / 984
History coverage219d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 13 History 970 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$3
14 days+$14
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $182 $168 −$14 (-8%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 41¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 25¢ $11 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Oilers vs. Capitals Oilers 29¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Vikings vs. Cowboys Cowboys 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Broncos (-12.5) Chargers 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Hornets Bulls 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Oh My God 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bengals vs. Bills Bengals 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Miami (OH) 41¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on November 29? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Washington vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Washington 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -2%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 +$3 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +146%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $7 +$5 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 04 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 03 $10 +$6 +57%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 02 $25 +$5 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $4 +$2 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 30 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $10 +$4 +37%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $71 +$34 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 27 $2 +$3 +123%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 26 $7 −$7 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$504
sports 33% −$412
other 12% −$214
world 2% +$24
politics 1% −$50
finance 0% −$11
tech 0% −$6
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% +$10
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 14h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $19 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 14h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 18h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 37h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $40 37h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 46h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 36¢ $10 46h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 62¢ $10 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +9.1% -1.3% 48% 48% -8.2%
≤30d 93 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 47% -13.5%
≤90d 153 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 46% -16.6%
all 970 -2.9% -12.2% 49% 45% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -19.5%
10% -20.6% 40% -27.2%
15% -28.3% 35% -34.2%
20% -35.3% 29% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.00 · official $273.00 (match) · 2842 history records