Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D5 0xd52d…f4cd sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$275 (-12%) realized −$274 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$12

7 days+$12

14 days+$12

30 days+$12

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-9.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+23.3%	+11.6%	100%	100%	+11.6%
≤30d	1	+23.3%	+11.6%	100%	100%	+11.6%
≤90d	1	+23.3%	+11.6%	100%	100%	+11.6%
all	20	+0.2%	-9.3%	45%	45%	-13.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.3%	45%	-13.7%
10%	-18.0%	45%	-21.9%
15%	-25.9%	40%	-29.5%
20%	-33.2%	40%	-36.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +18% → late -17% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$92 vs −$99 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage

Net worth$59

Realized−$274

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage150d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	44¢	42¢	$48	$46	−$2 (-3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	38¢	40¢	$12	$12	+$0 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$50	+$12	+23%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24?	Feb 24	$31	−$31	-100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14?	Feb 14	$101	−$99	-98%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	Feb 10	$7	−$7	-100%
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5	Feb 10	$4	+$3	+75%
Swansea City AFC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 2.5	Feb 08	$251	−$251	-100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08?	Feb 08	$156	+$97	+62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07?	Feb 07	$169	−$12	-7%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5	Feb 07	$687	−$522	-76%
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5	Feb 07	$254	+$436	+172%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	Feb 07	$15	−$15	-100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06?	Feb 07	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?	Feb 07	$41	−$24	-58%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-31?	Feb 07	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?	Feb 07	$151	+$104	+69%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?	Feb 07	$43	+$110	+257%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?	Jan 31	$52	+$29	+56%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31?	Jan 31	$23	+$20	+85%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?	Jan 31	$20	+$14	+71%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-01-31?	Jan 31	$18	−$1	-3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	38¢	$12	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	12¢	$12	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$49	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	44¢	$49	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	22¢	$50	2h
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-24?	BUY Yes	55¢	$31	125d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	135d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-14?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	135d
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	16¢	$7	139d
Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	57¢	$4	141d
Swansea City AFC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$251	141d
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08?	SELL Yes	76¢	$95	141d
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08?	SELL Yes	76¢	$158	141d
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-08?	BUY Yes	47¢	$156	141d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07?	SELL Yes	25¢	$156	142d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07?	BUY Yes	27¢	$169	142d
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	35¢	$165	142d
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$687	142d
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$690	142d
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$254	142d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?	SELL Yes	98¢	$255	142d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?	BUY Yes	58¢	$151	142d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$43	143d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06?	BUY Yes	46¢	$100	143d
Will Leeds United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	143d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?	SELL Yes	100¢	$81	149d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31?	SELL Yes	76¢	$43	149d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	48¢	$34	149d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?	BUY Yes	64¢	$52	149d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$20	149d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.69 · official $58.69 (match) · 43 history records