Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd52d…412d sports 892 markets active 7h ago coverage 171d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,370 (-7%) realized −$26,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%327W / 551L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$5,600est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$844
7 days−$4,128
14 days−$2,399
30 days−$8,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$15,315
other 18% −$9,141
crypto 4% −$1,339
world 2% −$1,160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -24.8% -32.0% 24% 24% -31.3%
≤30d 125 -4.6% -13.7% 41% 38% -18.8%
≤90d 503 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 37% -15.1%
all 878 -7.0% -15.9% 37% 32% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 32% -15.6%
10% -23.9% 29% -23.7%
15% -31.3% 26% -31.1%
20% -38.0% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$566) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$232 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses327 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$5,600
Open positions0
Markets (closed)878 / 892
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$449
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 878 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $505 −$505 -100%
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals Jun 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $324 −$324 -100%
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $393 +$207 +53%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $755 +$1,459 +193%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $554 −$554 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $496 −$16 -3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $358 −$270 -75%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,046 −$785 -75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,216 −$62 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $771 +$217 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $947 −$431 -46%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $221 −$137 -62%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Ghana Jun 18 $124 +$161 +130%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,194 −$294 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $226 +$341 +151%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $564 +$602 +107%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $124 +$135 +109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $310 −$310 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals Jun 16 $159 −$159 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 3+ goals Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $309 −$309 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $339 −$31 -9%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $223 +$118 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $192 −$192 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$10 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $547 +$146 +27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 −$239 -47%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $367 −$367 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $205 +$1,127 +549%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $246 −$246 -100%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $408 −$408 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $615 −$608 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $892 −$585 -66%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $243 −$243 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $844 +$779 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $877 −$32 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $456 −$456 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $871 +$1,028 +118%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $451 −$365 -81%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $41 −$6 -16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $807 +$334 +41%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $122 +$182 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $505 7h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $501 9h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $99 11h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 53¢ $99 11h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $225 12h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $393 12h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $2,214 12h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $486 13h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $9 13h
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $29 13h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $56 13h
Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $79 13h
Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $103 13h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $204 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $346 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $134 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $496 14h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $554 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $266 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $261 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,046 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,050 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $104 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $88 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $88 36h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $92 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,128 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $846 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $142 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $670 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records