Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D5 0xd52e…29d7 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$29
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$9
crypto 22% −$26
sports 21% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 55% -0.2%
≤30d 15 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -8.4%
≤90d 15 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -8.4%
all 15 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 47% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -8.4%
10% -24.7% 33% -17.2%
15% -32.0% 33% -25.2%
20% -38.7% 20% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage16d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$18 -23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$22 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $29 −$24 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $35 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records