Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd535…fc47 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$133 (+2%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%72W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days−$490
14 days−$414
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$420
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -33.7% -40.0% 34% 31% -22.8%
≤30d 113 -25.6% -32.7% 35% 32% -17.8%
≤90d 166 -21.8% -29.3% 43% 33% -17.0%
all 166 -21.8% -29.3% 43% 33% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 33% -17.0%
10% -36.0% 25% -25.0%
15% -42.2% 17% -32.2%
20% -47.9% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses72 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage81d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $130 +$110 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $326 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $119 −$66 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$9 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $155 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $162 +$61 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $89 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $151 +$136 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$33 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$13 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$16 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $151 −$10 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $138 +$48 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $249 +$238 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $171 −$46 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$11 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$22 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$60 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$25 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $194 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 671 history records