Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D5 0xd535…eff4 other 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$54 (+26%) realized +$50 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 46L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days−$5
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$70
politics 23% −$2
sports 19% −$14
world 14% −$4
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +33.9%
≤30d 66 +7.2% -3.0% 41% 27% +21.6%
≤90d 79 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 28% +15.4%
all 79 +6.0% -4.1% 42% 28% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 28% +15.4%
10% -13.3% 19% +4.3%
15% -21.7% 11% -5.8%
20% -29.3% 10% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)79 / 85
History coverage60d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 50¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+88%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 61¢ 23¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Yes 18¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Jun 04 $11 −$5 -48%
Will there be fewer than 2 North Korea tests in May 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club vs. Caracas FC end in a draw? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
NEOM SC vs. Al Ettifaq Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 3.5 May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 $0 +7%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to Score May 21 $1 $0 +6%
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1 $0 +12%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 1.5 May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 21 $1 $0 +16%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1 $0 +31%
Will Zamalek SC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Zamalek SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club: O/U 1.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1 $0 +13%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
São Paulo FC vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $1 $0 +5%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Platense: O/U 2.5 May 20 $2 $0 +16%
Club Always Ready vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $2 +$1 +31%
Spread: Audax CS Italiano (-1.5) May 20 $1 +$1 +121%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 2.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5) May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia end in a draw? May 19 $1 $0 +25%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $1 $0 +28%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $1 $0 +20%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $6 −$3 -61%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
FCV Farul Constanţa vs. FC Metaloglobus București: O/U 2.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FCV Farul Constanţa win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 +$1 +78%
Will FC Metaloglobus București win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 +$8 +704%
Spread: ASC Oțelul Galați (-1.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Djurgardens IF win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Haras El Hodood SC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $14 −$1 -6%
Will "SPY x FAMILY Season 3" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchy May 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $0 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.50 · official $8.50 (match) · 315 history records