trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 54% | 21% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.6% | 21% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -27.3% | 17% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 12% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 8% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $90 | $90 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 72¢ | 56¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-23%) |
| Love Wins: 2026 Edition | No | 90¢ | 66¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-27%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Apr 27 | $80 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 27 | $70 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Mar 28 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 28 | $234 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 28 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 05 | $322 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w | Feb 11 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| FIFA Intercontinental Cup: PSG vs. Flamengo - Winner | Dec 31 | $2 | +$1 | +30% |
| Spread: Indiana Hoosiers (-35.5) | Dec 16 | $1 | +$1 | +79% |
| TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? | Nov 14 | $2 | −$1 | -68% |
| Will Soraya Martinez Ferrada win the 2025 Montreal mayor election? | Nov 14 | $2 | $0 | +7% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in September? | Nov 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Nationals vs. Astros | Aug 23 | $4 | +$2 | +50% |
| Athletics vs. Astros | May 26 | $6 | −$6 | -99% |
| Will DOGE bring back Marko Elez in February? | May 26 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| @idrawline unbanned before February? | Feb 08 | $3 | +$1 | +19% |
| Dogecoin above $0.43 on December 13? | Jan 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? | Dec 07 | $881 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Fischer win Nebraska senate election by 7+ points? | Dec 07 | $8 | +$4 | +44% |
| U.S. military action against Iran before November? | Nov 01 | $18 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election? | Oct 14 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Swell airdrop by September 30? | Oct 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will threadguy interview Trump before October? | Oct 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Trump in jail before election day? | Aug 28 | $744 | −$7 | -1% |