Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd536…9d6d sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$349 (+6%) realized +$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$104
other 8% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 67% -9.5%
≤30d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 67% -9.5%
≤90d 18 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 67% -9.5%
all 18 -0.7% -10.1% 72% 67% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 67% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 44% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 17% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$189 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $553 −$319 -58%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $287 −$232 -81%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $709 +$76 +11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $300 −$88 -29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $66 +$33 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $301 +$32 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $503 +$106 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$75 -74%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $252 +$100 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $543 +$59 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $101 +$42 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $477 +$24 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $389 +$88 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $298 +$91 +30%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $234 −$232 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $252 +$82 +33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $340 +$109 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $481 +$108 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $234 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $553 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $56 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $287 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $785 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $709 28h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $213 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $300 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $333 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 90¢ $301 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $609 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $503 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $26 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $352 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $252 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $543 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $501 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $477 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $477 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $389 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $389 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $298 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $234 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $334 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 75¢ $252 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $449 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records