Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd537…008e crypto 1650 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%1533W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$10
sports 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 25% -10.6%
≤30d 193 -1.6% -10.9% 89% 25% -10.6%
≤90d 1026 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 5% -9.6%
all 1650 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 0% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1533 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1650 / 1650
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 8m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.17 · official $3.17 (match) · 3500 history records