Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd537…0f7c sports 1044 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$61,866 (-14%) realized −$61,871 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%645W / 398L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$2,096est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$295
7 days−$708
14 days−$412
30 days−$2,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$63,355
other 0% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -39.5% -45.3% 41% 37% -56.4%
≤30d 205 -6.2% -15.2% 65% 59% -14.9%
≤90d 581 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 58% -19.2%
all 1043 -5.8% -14.8% 62% 57% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 57% -22.4%
10% -23.0% 46% -29.8%
15% -30.4% 34% -36.6%
20% -37.2% 22% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$460 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$61,871
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses645 / 398
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,096
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1043 / 1044
History coverage176d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1043 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 63¢ 68¢ $71 $76 +$5 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $46 +$46 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $58 +$36 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $200 −$93 -46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $148 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $29 −$9 -32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $13 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $280 −$277 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $9 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 +$11 +36%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $24 +$11 +45%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$7 +39%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 +$4 +29%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 +$15 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$4 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$7 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$8 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$8 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $61 +$16 +26%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $197 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $519 −$519 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $722 −$722 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $682 +$422 +62%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $164 +$221 +135%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $480 +$135 +28%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $559 +$152 +27%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $522 +$38 +7%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $637 +$349 +55%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $455 +$213 +47%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $572 +$298 +52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $73 −$73 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $72 26m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $0 29m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $92 29m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $93 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $58 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $58 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 85¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 21¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $150 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $151 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $88 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 98¢ $59 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 74¢ $9 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 33¢ $9 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $18 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $13 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 70¢ $6 28h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $280 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $9 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $37 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $43 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 73¢ $31 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $34 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 69¢ $12 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 69¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.40 · official $85.45 · 3071 history records