Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd538…6415 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,665 (-21%) realized −$1,665 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate58%44W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$143
7 days−$270
14 days−$270
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$628
other 25% −$1,113
world 21% +$58
culture 6% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.5% -36.2% 53% 26% -35.5%
≤30d 19 -29.5% -36.2% 53% 26% -35.5%
≤90d 40 -23.5% -30.8% 62% 35% -29.3%
all 76 -27.2% -34.1% 58% 26% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 26% -29.1%
10% -40.4% 13% -35.9%
15% -46.2% 9% -42.1%
20% -51.5% 4% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$73 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1,665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses44 / 32
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage463d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $26 −$26 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $37 −$34 -91%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $118 −$53 -45%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $31 +$2 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $29 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $27 +$1 +5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $70 −$46 -66%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 19 $40 +$31 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 +$7 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $48 +$12 +26%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $120 +$20 +17%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $110 +$9 +8%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Gaziantep FK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 May 01 $100 −$100 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5 May 01 $201 −$200 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $279 +$18 +6%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $304 −$300 -99%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $203 +$34 +17%
Madrid Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 30 $74 +$1 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $200 +$76 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $127 +$20 +16%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 25 $300 +$8 +3%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $114 +$13 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 17 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 17 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 17 $250 +$25 +10%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $300 +$50 +17%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 08 $169 −$169 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $120 +$49 +41%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $301 −$301 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $416 +$10 +2%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $402 +$14 +4%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $302 +$100 +33%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $266 +$36 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 17 $225 −$6 -3%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League quarter Mar 17 $43 +$3 +6%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Mar 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $26 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $33 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 31h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev $3 31h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 65¢ $37 32h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $37 32h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 90¢ $33 32h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Renata Zarazua 100¢ $33 32h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 94¢ $31 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys SELL Toby Samuel 100¢ $31 34h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys BUY Toby Samuel 96¢ $30 34h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson SELL Murphy Cassone 100¢ $30 34h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Murphy Cassone 95¢ $29 35h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $28 35h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Marie Bouzkova 95¢ $27 35h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $28 35h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 59¢ $85 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $24 2d
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide SELL Dalibor Svrcina 30¢ $24 2d
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 86¢ $70 2d
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta BUY Facundo Acosta 56¢ $40 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $18 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $61 4d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $61 4d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 79¢ $48 4d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 26¢ $51 4d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.52 · official $28.52 (match) · 141 history records