Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D5 0xd53d…95a7 sports 24 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day34.5pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-16.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-8.0%	-16.7%	48%	39%	-14.9%
≤30d	23	-8.0%	-16.7%	48%	39%	-14.9%
≤90d	23	-8.0%	-16.7%	48%	39%	-14.9%
all	23	-8.0%	-16.7%	48%	39%	-14.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.5 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.7%	39%	-14.9%
10% ← realistic here	-24.7%	35%	-23.0%
15%	-32.0%	22%	-30.5%
20%	-38.6%	13%	-37.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

18% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late -26% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.72 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day34.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	Jun 13	$84	−$53	-64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 13	$9	−$4	-46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$50	−$19	-37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$13	−$13	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 13	$46	−$24	-52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$33	+$8	+24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$20	−$8	-39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$126	+$34	+27%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$45	−$18	-39%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$14	+$5	+38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$15	−$15	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 12	$60	+$43	+71%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$27	−$16	-57%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)	Jun 12	$30	−$17	-57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$138	+$4	+3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 12	$50	+$1	+3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 12	$30	+$20	+64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$31	−$31	-100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 12	$50	+$6	+12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	Jun 12	$20	+$6	+28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 12	$107	−$3	-3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$5	+$10	+197%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$50	+$22	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN	BUY	20¢	$37	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	SELL Monte	18¢	$5	5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	SELL Vitality	49¢	$32	5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner	BUY Vitality	76¢	$50	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	BUY Monte	32¢	$9	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	43¢	$23	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	35¢	$31	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	62¢	$20	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL Aurora Gaming	27¢	$22	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	70¢	$40	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	58¢	$15	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	99¢	$25	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Aurora Gaming	54¢	$30	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL G2	40¢	$12	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	68¢	$17	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	SELL Monte	43¢	$17	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY G2	64¢	$20	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner	BUY Monte	40¢	$16	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL Natus Vincere	99¢	$137	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY Natus Vincere	76¢	$106	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	SELL Natus Vincere	55¢	$24	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL B8	45¢	$28	5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY B8	72¢	$45	5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	BUY Natus Vincere	46¢	$20	5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$20	5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	71¢	$14	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	SELL Spirit	99¢	$103	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	24¢	$12	5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Spirit	57¢	$60	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$27	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records