Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd540…f3db crypto 1433 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$414 (-2%) realized −$414 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%699W / 1068L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day54.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4
weather 18% −$903
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 691 -52.0% -56.6% 31% 27% -62.2%
≤30d 782 -50.7% -55.4% 30% 26% -60.8%
≤90d 1767 -31.5% -38.0% 40% 35% -29.8%
all 1767 -31.5% -38.0% 40% 35% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.0% 35% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.0% 29% -36.5%
15% -49.4% 23% -42.6%
20% -54.3% 17% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$414
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses699 / 1068
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1767 / 1433
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day54.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1767 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$14 -162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $16 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records