Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D5 0xd540…09e5 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$100 (+37%) realized +$98 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +54% what you keep after slip

Net edge+54%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+59.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+76.7%	+59.9%	100%	100%	+57.6%
≤30d	4	+76.7%	+59.9%	100%	100%	+57.6%
≤90d	4	+76.7%	+59.9%	100%	100%	+57.6%
all	4	+76.7%	+59.9%	100%	100%	+57.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+59.9%	100%	+57.6%
10%	+44.6%	100%	+42.5%
15%	+30.6%	100%	+28.7%
20%	+17.8%	75%	+16.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +74% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +77% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$142

Realized+$98

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	66¢	$70	$72	+$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$70	$71	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$31	+$43	+140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	+$27	+54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$30	+$14	+46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$71	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$31	6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$71	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$78	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.31 · official $142.31 (match) · 10 history records