Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd541…e026 crypto 1725 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,490 (+2%) realized +$3,490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%924W / 801L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day97.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,477
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 555 -1.7% -11.1% 54% 54% -11.2%
≤30d 1725 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -12.3%
≤90d 1725 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -12.3%
all 1725 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 54% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 54% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 54% -20.7%
15% -27.6% 54% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 54% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$86 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses924 / 801
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1725 / 1725
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day97.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1725 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$57 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$145 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$60 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$136 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$69 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $144 +$111 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$73 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$44 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $258 +$222 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $181 +$156 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$67 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$79 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$61 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $78 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $155 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $38 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $77 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $155 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $155 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $78 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $155 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $155 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $144 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $78 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $258 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $181 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $78 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records