Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd544…5641 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$214 (-34%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.3% -30.6% 48% 30% -43.8%
≤30d 23 -23.3% -30.6% 48% 30% -43.8%
≤90d 23 -23.3% -30.6% 48% 30% -43.8%
all 23 -23.3% -30.6% 48% 30% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 30% -43.8%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 13% -49.2%
15% -43.3% 9% -54.1%
20% -48.9% 4% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$22 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$99 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$58 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$22 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records