Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd54a…7db6 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
other 33% −$28
politics 12% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 33 -9.3% -17.9% 21% 3% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 3% -13.1%
10% -25.8% 3% -21.4%
15% -33.0% 0% -29.0%
20% -39.5% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage382d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $95 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $45 $0 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $78 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $53 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $40 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $20 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jan 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $24 +$1 +2%
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Aug 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $25 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $23 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 6d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $15 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $12 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $8 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records