Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd54b…c2b4 crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$332 (-5%) realized −$332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate68%38W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$156
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$385
politics 17% −$7
tech 3% −$84
other 3% −$8
world 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -56.5% -60.7% 33% 11% -36.4%
≤30d 9 -56.5% -60.7% 33% 11% -36.4%
≤90d 40 -19.6% -27.3% 72% 12% -16.2%
all 56 -17.8% -25.6% 68% 14% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 14% -16.6%
10% -32.8% 2% -24.5%
15% -39.3% 0% -31.8%
20% -45.2% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$42 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses38 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage128d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $108 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$41 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $181 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 20 $59 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 05 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 29 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 29 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11AM ET Apr 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 11 $120 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11AM ET Apr 11 $105 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8AM ET Apr 11 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 11 $90 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7AM ET Apr 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 09 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 09 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11AM ET Apr 09 $180 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 09 $170 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 09 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 21 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 09 $200 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 04 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 04 $200 −$183 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 04 $200 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 04 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 04 $200 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $82 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $59 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $196 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $80 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 84¢ $59 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $70 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $70 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $70 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $100 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $104 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $119 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $100 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $101 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records