Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd54c…c9aa crypto 458 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1448 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-3%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate42%203W / 277L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1447.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1448 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 480 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 30% -11.8%
≤30d 480 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 30% -11.8%
≤90d 480 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 30% -11.8%
all 480 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 30% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1447.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 30% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 23% -20.3%
15% -40.9% 13% -28.0%
20% -46.7% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses203 / 277
Open positions0
Markets (closed)480 / 458
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1447.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 480 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.77 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records