Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D5 0xd54c…2900 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$70 (+40%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$6
14 days+$56
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -2.0%
≤30d 10 +62.5% +47.1% 70% 70% +40.0%
≤90d 10 +62.5% +47.1% 70% 70% +40.0%
all 15 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.8% 60% +18.5%
10% +10.1% 60% +7.1%
15% -0.5% 60% -3.2%
20% -10.3% 60% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage119d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $11 +$35 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $11 +$17 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $19 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records