Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd54e…7f96 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day230.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -0.4% -9.8% 55% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 42 -0.4% -9.8% 55% 50% -3.3%
≤90d 42 -0.4% -9.8% 55% 50% -3.3%
all 42 -0.4% -9.8% 55% 50% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover230.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 50% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 40% -12.5%
15% -26.4% 33% -21.0%
20% -33.6% 31% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$44 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day230.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $155 +$120 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $181 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $108 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $229 +$48 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $140 +$97 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $93 −$53 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $83 −$50 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $177 +$117 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $155 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $170 +$127 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$35 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $67 +$71 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $88 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $99 −$24 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $93 −$69 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$68 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$45 +428%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $28 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $102 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $83 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $43 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $40 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $236 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records