Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D5 0xd54e…2e45 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$75 (+32%) realized +$69 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$48
sports 11% +$23
crypto 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +23.2%
≤30d 15 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +23.2%
≤90d 15 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +23.2%
all 15 +32.7% +20.0% 60% 60% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 60% +23.2%
10% +8.6% 53% +11.4%
15% -1.9% 53% +0.7%
20% -11.6% 53% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +94% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$33 +213%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$27 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -31%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 10h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.65 · official $36.65 (match) · 32 history records