Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd550…5f0c world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%13W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 16% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 3% −$6
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -10.1%
all 33 -2.1% -11.4% 39% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -11.0%
10% -19.9% 6% -19.5%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses13 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage482d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $61 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $79 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $31 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ding Liren win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament? May 19 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 19 $8 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $2 $0 -4%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 12 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $1 $0 +32%
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco Mar 04 $9 +$2 +25%
Celtics vs. Pistons Mar 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 02 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $26 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $25 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $1 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $23 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $6 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $29 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $29 22h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $17 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $8 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $29 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $14 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $28 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $29 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $29 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $22 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $35 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.77 · official $26.77 (match) · 108 history records