Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
D5 0xd552…799c other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,223 (+48%) realized +$2,335 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +124% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip
Net edge+94%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$2,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$1,548
sports 5% +$276
world 1% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+102.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +123.7% +102.4% 53% 53% +67.2%
≤30d 17 +123.7% +102.4% 53% 53% +67.2%
≤90d 17 +123.7% +102.4% 53% 53% +67.2%
all 17 +123.7% +102.4% 53% 53% +67.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +102.4% 53% +67.2%
10% +83.0% 53% +51.2%
15% +65.3% 47% +36.6%
20% +49.1% 41% +23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +85% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +124% · $-wt +85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late +137% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$42 · ×6.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.03 per $1 lost it wins $7.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2,098
Realized+$2,335
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $1,100 $705 −$395 (-36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $230 $431 +$201 (+88%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $50 $172 +$122 (+245%)
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 0¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $708 +$403 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 +$504 +982%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $112 +$241 +216%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $604 +$146 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$67 +45%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$574 +1116%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jesper Svensson win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $211 +$276 +131%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $70 +$87 +124%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 42m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 35¢ $114 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 4h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 15h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 17h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $708 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 19h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? SELL Yes 5¢ $46 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $604 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $149 26h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 40h
Will Jesper Svensson win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $405 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 86¢ $83 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 80¢ $82 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $71 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,097.51 · official $2,111.70 (match) · 50 history records