Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd554…06e6 crypto 1421 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-5%) realized −$171 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%34W / 1742L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day60.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$228
7 days−$221
14 days−$221
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$10
other 9% +$89
crypto 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-86.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 893 -96.8% -97.1% 2% 1% -15.5%
≤30d 1776 -85.2% -86.6% 2% 1% -16.0%
≤90d 1776 -85.2% -86.6% 2% 1% -16.0%
all 1776 -85.2% -86.6% 2% 1% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -86.6% 1% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -87.9% 1% -24.0%
15% -89.1% 1% -31.4%
20% -90.2% 1% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$0 · ×30.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$171
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses34 / 1742
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1776 / 1421
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day60.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Titouan Droguet 90¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 90¢ 100¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 89¢ $9 44m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 89¢ $12 44m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 89¢ $20 44m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 90¢ $50 45m
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 89¢ $10 45m
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 90¢ $51 46m
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $60 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $63 1h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill BUY Otto Virtanen 88¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 100¢ $154 1h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 100¢ $56 1h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina SELL Dalibor Svrcina 100¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 99¢ $97 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $50 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $76 2h
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 95¢ $50 2h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 90¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 90¢ $50 2h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 90¢ $50 5h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 80¢ $50 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 85¢ $51 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $20 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $28 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $24 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 10¢ $33 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 10¢ $18 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 25¢ $17 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 25¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 25¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports 25¢ $20 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.94 · official $111.94 (match) · 3500 history records