Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd557…a5ed crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$856per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$12
politics 30% +$10
other 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 +3.3% -6.5% 78% 11% -9.6%
all 29 +7.6% -2.7% 93% 21% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 21% -9.5%
10% -12.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -20.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -28.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage591d
Avg bet$856
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 17 $8,702 −$11 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $8,685 −$2 -0%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Apr 09 $2 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Apr 09 $1 $0 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Apr 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 14 $1 $0 +16%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 Dec 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $1 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Nov 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on September 23? Oct 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 29 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? Sep 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Aug 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Aug 19 $2 $0 +4%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Aug 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Aug 19 $2 $0 +18%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Mar 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Mar 03 $2 $0 +16%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 14 $7,390 +$8 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $3 +$2 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $8,691 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,702 13h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,682 13h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,685 21h
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 69d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 89¢ $2 69d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $1 154d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 154d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 154d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $1 184d
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 BUY Yes 93¢ $1 184d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 86¢ $1 184d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 209d
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 209d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 99¢ $1 209d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 231d
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 231d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 231d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on September 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 267d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 97¢ $9 267d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 98¢ $6 302d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 302d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 471d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 471d
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 471d
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 527d
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 527d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 527d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 95¢ $363 581d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.95 · official $8.95 (match) · 81 history records