Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd558…8459 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$1
politics 24% $0
other 22% +$5
sports 19% −$69
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.9% -8.8% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 31 +25.0% +13.1% 39% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 39 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 8% -9.5%
all 71 +10.6% +0.0% 32% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 6% -10.3%
10% -9.5% 4% -18.9%
15% -18.3% 3% -26.8%
20% -26.3% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage330d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $99 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $168 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $170 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $75 +$6 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $74 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $85 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $88 −$5 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $85 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $176 −$7 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $175 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $76 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $127 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $91 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $5 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $91 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $66 +$6 +10%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $390 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $651 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $611 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $645 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $586 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $236 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) Mar 15 $77 $0 +0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $139 −$69 -50%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $140 −$2 -1%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 13 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 13 $139 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $25 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $70 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $71 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $66 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $88 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $80 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $48 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $89 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $19 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $62 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $16 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $59 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $74 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $74 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $82 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $82 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $19 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $0.00 · 287 history records