Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd558…8b1b other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$153 (+5%) realized +$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$121
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$111
world 4% −$11
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.8% -7.0% 67% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 45 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 24% -6.5%
≤90d 45 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 24% -6.5%
all 45 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 24% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 24% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 11% -15.5%
15% -27.4% 4% -23.6%
20% -34.5% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage12d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $253 −$36 -14%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $160 +$105 +66%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $95 −$41 -44%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $176 +$28 +16%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 24 $126 +$7 +6%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $362 −$5 -2%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $19 +$2 +8%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $124 +$42 +34%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $144 +$31 +22%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $50 +$3 +7%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $84 +$17 +21%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $126 −$11 -9%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $38 +$8 +21%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $8 $0 +5%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $74 +$24 +33%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $90 +$5 +5%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $168 +$8 +5%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $44 −$10 -22%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $139 −$16 -11%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $74 +$21 +29%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $60 −$8 -13%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $54 −$1 -3%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $76 −$1 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $46 +$9 +21%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -39%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $38 −$4 -10%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $13 $0 -4%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $132 −$5 -4%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $39 +$7 +19%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 75¢ $1 7m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 77¢ $10 8m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 77¢ $56 8m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 76¢ $66 10m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 77¢ $0 58m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 79¢ $1 59m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 21¢ $64 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 22¢ $9 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 79¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 17¢ $61 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 64¢ $5 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $95 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $17 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $3 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $22 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $40 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $6 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $7 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 58¢ $7 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 65¢ $11 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 65¢ $3 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 30¢ $57 18h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 32¢ $60 18h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $35 23h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $33 23h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 24h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 24h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records