Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd55c…9a2d other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$64
sports 26% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 64% 36% -4.6%
≤30d 36 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 42% +10.0%
≤90d 36 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 42% +10.0%
all 36 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 42% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 42% +10.0%
10% -19.1% 33% -0.5%
15% -26.9% 31% -10.1%
20% -34.0% 22% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage13d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $60 −$1 -2%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +129%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $7 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1 $0 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 $0 -9%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $92 +$10 +12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $83 −$78 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 +$14 +121%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $41 +$42 +101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$3 -42%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -20%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$3 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $59 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $60 1h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 83¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $4 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 6d
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records