Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd562…6912 crypto 1653 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$214 (-1%) realized −$216 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%213W / 1191L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$275
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$249
other 0% +$2
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +12.7% +2.0% 59% 59% +17.8%
≤30d 1404 -1.5% -10.8% 15% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 1404 -1.5% -10.8% 15% 8% -8.8%
all 1404 -1.5% -10.8% 15% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 8% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 8% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 8% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses213 / 1191
Open positions422
Markets (closed)1404 / 1653
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 422 History 1404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Petr Yan be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings in 2026? Yes 0¢ 41¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+10174%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+650%)
Will Mark Wheeler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+581%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Paddy Pimblett be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3700%)
Will the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+733%)
Will Randy Zurcher be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+257%)
Will Carter Hanson be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+383%)
Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+333%)
Will Marie Bouzkova win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+283%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+448%)
Will Jennifer Jenkins be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will Aaron Kahng win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Emma Navarro win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+90%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Deiveson Figueiredo be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Rick Jakious be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF + Maori? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+274%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Desmond Bane win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthony Jones win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rick Caruso finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost ≥$3.50 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jonathan Dearden win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Monica Rodriguez finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Javen Allen advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nana Araba Wilmot win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jaspratap "Jassi" Bindra win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Adam Miller finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lionel Scaloni be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win fewer Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 30-32 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Hanrapetutyun Party win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Natio Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Unai Emery be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7h
Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Queb BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.55 · official $14.44 (match) · 3500 history records