Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd565…3f5a
other · 79 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$79 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$61 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$143
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 45
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage614d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 1 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$191
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 48¢ 46¢ $147 $143 −$5 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 47¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 41¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-03? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 GamerLegion 45¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
AC Milan vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-15? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $146 $0 −$146 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Natus Vincere 6¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 59¢ 0¢ $206 $0 −$206 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sharks 51¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-14? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $209 −$206 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$29 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$31 +62%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $149 +$88 +59%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$46 +91%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$46 +91%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $79 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $199 +$80 +40%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $149 −$146 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 15 $50 +$171 +344%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $199 +$129 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $200 +$123 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $150 +$155 +104%
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Dec 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $50 +$53 +106%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 12 $99 +$170 +172%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $100 +$25 +25%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-03? Nov 03 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Spirit (BO3) Nov 03 $237 +$42 +18%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Nov 03 $200 −$146 -73%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $200 +$82 +41%
Open de Moselle, Qualification: Vitaliy Sachko vs Clement Tabur Nov 02 $7 −$7 -100%
AC Milan vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Nov 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $401 $0 -0%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $101 +$39 +39%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? Nov 02 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $100 +$68 +68%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $68 +$45 +66%
Army vs. Air Force Nov 01 $351 +$118 +34%
Will France win on 2025-09-05? Oct 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-20? Oct 31 $298 −$298 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Oct 31 $52 +$49 +94%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? Oct 31 $97 +$55 +57%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30? Oct 31 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-10-01? Oct 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Oct 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniil Medvedev Oct 31 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $21 +$26 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$358
sports 31% −$33
crypto 5% −$278
politics 2% −$201
world 2% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $150 1h
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 59¢ $209 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL MIBR 100¢ $79 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY MIBR 63¢ $51 10d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 100¢ $82 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 61¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ $38 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL B8 100¢ $238 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 62¢ $149 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 47¢ $42 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 45¢ $51 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL MIBR 99¢ $97 11d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY MIBR 51¢ $51 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL NRG 99¢ $97 11d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Sharks 51¢ $50 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 51¢ $51 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Liquid 41¢ $79 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL GamerLegion 99¢ $278 11d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 70¢ $199 11d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $149 14d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina BUY Elina Svitolina 22¢ $50 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $328 34d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $199 34d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 100¢ $323 39d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 61¢ $200 39d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Natus Vincere 6¢ $50 41d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? SELL Yes 91¢ $305 74d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 44¢ $150 74d
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $53 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 43% -34.8%
≤90d 19 +3.9% -6.0% 53% 53% -0.1%
all 78 -20.1% -27.7% 42% 41% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 41% -9.0%
10% -34.6% 40% -17.7%
15% -40.9% 35% -25.7%
20% -46.7% 28% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.80 · official $142.80 (match) · 150 history records