Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd569…cfef other 55 markets active 1d ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-13%) realized −$136 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$70
sports 40% −$1
crypto 8% −$78
politics 8% −$4
world 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 32% 27% -21.6%
≤30d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 32% 27% -21.6%
≤90d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 32% 27% -21.6%
all 54 -4.3% -13.4% 26% 22% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 22% -20.9%
10% -21.7% 22% -28.5%
15% -29.3% 20% -35.4%
20% -36.2% 20% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 40
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage210d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 −$101 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $54 +$75 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$28 -79%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$38 +128%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $11 −$4 -38%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$46 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 04 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 22 $40 $0 -0%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 21 $20 +$21 +107%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? Jan 21 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $29 +$1 +3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jan 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files? Dec 25 $8 +$58 +684%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 11? Dec 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $2 +$20 +982%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on December 2? Nov 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 30? Nov 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by December 31? Nov 29 $6 +$10 +156%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Nov 28 $20 −$14 -69%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 26? Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 28? Nov 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 27? Nov 26 $3 +$6 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 26 $13 −$3 -20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 2? Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? Nov 26 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Nov 26 $2 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $57 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $104 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $104 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $40 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $23 5d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $25 5d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $54 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $67 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $56 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 43¢ $30 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $56 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 24¢ $9 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 53¢ $22 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $14 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 6¢ $7 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 6d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $20 6d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $23 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 6d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $1.44 (match) · 101 history records